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An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro just before it was made public, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of American actions.

Market Movement in Forecasts

Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the leader would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.

A single trader, which became a member last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32,537.

The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.

Market Signals Before Public Statement

Trading information shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.

But the odds had jumped to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a sudden change in betting activity just before the official statement was made.

"This specific wager has all the signs of a trade based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate.

Several of other traders also made significant sums from similar wagers.

Legal Questions Grows

Politicians are beginning to pay attention.

A new rule introduced on recently would prevent government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.

Market Background

Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting space.

A company executive for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."