Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The typical figure of daily killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative statistics. But, public safety experts have warned that murder figures may not point to enhanced countrywide safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 murders a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded in these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the least number of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President declared: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is notably true given the increase in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it might hide days when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Using the daily average renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.