Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
