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Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year backed the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.